Tesla’s Bumper Delivery Numbers Charge Up Shares

Tesla Inc’s shares started the year with stellar gains after the electric carmaker reported record deliveries for the fourth quarter, allaying fears of supply chain woes that have hit automakers. Shares of the world’s most valuable carmaker ended up 13.5% at $1,199.78 each on Monday, marking the biggest daily percentage gain in nearly 10 months. Analysts expect the strong delivery numbers to bolster 2022 expectations and see the pace of expansion of its new factories in Berlin and Texas to be large determinants.

“We expect a gradual ramp of Berlin and Austin and anticipate those ramps will lead to a deceleration of exports from Shanghai, many of which have been bound for Europe in 2021,” Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne said.

The company, like others, faces component shortages as a global logistics crunch and factory closures due to the pandemic limited supply. But Tesla managed to overcome much of the problems by reprogramming software to use less scarce chips. Tesla delivered 308,600 vehicles in the fourth quarter, higher than analysts’ forecasts of 263,026 vehicles, which includes its Model 3 compact cars and Model Y sport-utility vehicles and flagship Model S and Model X vehicles, the company reported on Sunday.

RBC Capital Markets revised its quarterly revenue estimate, bumping it up by $2.3 billion. J.P. Morgan boosted its profit estimates. Still, analysts said Tesla has a lot to watch out for in 2022 as competition heats up with several startup EV companies scheduled to launch their first cars on the road. Legacy automakers such as Ford and General Motors also are shifting focus to electric cars.

“We see 2022 being a more challenging year than 2021 was in light of increasing competition, and we believe the design of the four vehicles on the road are getting long in the tooth which likely decelerates growth,” Osborne said.

Some analysts also said Tesla’s stock is over-valued, given its relatively smaller production volume. Tesla, which produced some 930,000 vehicles last year, is about four times more valuable than Toyota Motor which aims to produce 9 million vehicles in the year that ends in March.