Southeast Asia Poised for Wind Power Surge: 26 GW of Onshore Capacity Expected by 2030

Onshore wind capacity in Southeast Asia is set for a remarkable transformation, with projections indicating a surge to 26 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, according to Rystad Energy. This figure represents an impressive leap of 19.5 GW from the current 6.5 GW anticipated in 2024.

Supportive Policies Fuel Expansion

This soaring expansion is primarily driven by a combination of short-term policy initiatives, including auctions and project awards, paired with attractive feed-in tariffs (FITs). Additionally, the growing acceptance of mainland Chinese wind turbines is playing a significant role in this renaissance of onshore wind energy.

Technological Advancements Empower Competition

Raksit Pattanapitoon, lead renewables and power analyst for APAC at Rystad Energy, highlights that “with more mature technology, falling equipment costs, and improved performance at lower wind speeds, onshore wind is increasingly a competitive option for meeting renewable energy targets.”

Vietnam Leads the Charge

Currently, Vietnam stands out as the largest market in the region, despite facing some policy-induced fluctuations. It is trailed by the Philippines and Thailand in the onshore wind race. Notably, Laos has just made its entrance into this dynamic market with the commissioning of Southeast Asia’s largest wind project in August, designed specifically for power export to Vietnam.

Learning from Regional Experiences

Rystad emphasizes that countries such as Laos, Cambodia, and potentially Indonesia, have much to gain from the experiences of their more established neighbors like Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines. The experience in these countries has seen an initial rapid rollout of projects—around 4 GW in Vietnam, 1.5 GW in Thailand, and 400 MW in the Philippines—only to be followed by a frustrating drought of new developments. This stagnation occurred due to inconsistent policy frameworks, leaving Vietnam with no new construction since 2021, Thailand since 2019, and the Philippines since 2015.

Strategies for Long-Term Success

Looking forward, Rystad acknowledges that the long-term success of onshore wind in Southeast Asia will be contingent on several factors: consistent policies, stronger grid integration, and the establishment of local supply chains. As they aptly put it, “continued government support and collaboration within the industry are crucial to building a resilient wind market and ensuring wind energy becomes a key pillar of the region’s renewable transition.”