New APAC Forwarding Index
In this article (5)
Air and ocean volumes on Asia-Europe trade lanes eastbound and westbound are expected to surge in the coming months, according to the latest survey results for The New APAC Forwarding Index being developed by Mike King & Associates and Logistics Trends & Insights LLC.
Higher air freight volumes are expected on key lanes to and from APAC, and the outlook for intra-Asia trade is also optimistic. The survey results, compiled by consultants Mike King and Cathy Roberson, are the first step towards the creation of a new Index for Asia forwarding markets which will be published in the coming months. The second survey is open to anyone with insight or business linked to key trade lanes to and from APAC used by forwarders and third parties.
APAC Ocean Forwarding Markets
Sixty per cent of survey respondents said ocean freight volumes to and from APAC in April were higher than March, while 54 per cent predicted they would handle higher volumes three months from now.
“Demand has been higher than we’d anticipated from Europe to Asia, and there has also been some disruption to liner services following blank sailings around Chinese New Year and changes to alliances,” said one respondent. “We expect capacity to be tight well into Q2.”
“Concerns of a possible protectionist import tax on goods entering the US may be holding some shippers back in the North America region,”
Seventy per cent of respondents expect APAC to Europe ocean freight volumes to increase three months from now, while 66.7 per cent forecast that volumes will rise from APAC to North America. However, optimism for the North America – APAC trade was hard to discern. Only 28.6% of respondents saw higher volumes on the lane in April compared to March, while only 43 per cent expect volumes to increase three months from now.
“Despite uncertainty surrounding liner Alliances leading up to April 1 and the various bedding issues we have seen including terminal congestion in China and a lack of capacity in Europe, optimism is high for the APAC ocean freight market,” said Roberson. “The Europe to APAC trade lane had the highest percentage rate of month-to-month volume gains according to respondents to our first survey. The next most dynamic lanes were APAC to Europe and APAC to North America.
“The North America to APAC liner trade reported the lowest percentage of respondents recording volume increases in April compared to March which could be the strength of the Greenback catching up with exporters. On most lanes the majority of respondents expect to see higher volumes over the next three months than at present, which bodes well for forwarders and lines.”
APAC Air Markets
Fifty-four per cent of survey respondents predicted APAC volumes across all lanes will be higher in three months than at present, with 37 per cent expecting them to remain the same and just 9 per cent lower. Fifty-two per cent of respondents reported that volumes in April compared to March were higher while only 11 per cent said they were lower. As with ocean trades, the most dynamic air cargo lanes in April compared to March were APAC to Europe (73 per cent experienced higher volumes month-on-month), Europe to APAC (55 per centhigher m-o-m) and APAC to North America (63 per cent higher m-o-m).
“Concerns of a possible protectionist import tax on goods entering the US may be holding some shippers back in the North America region,” said Roberson. “Still, a respectable showing for North America as the economy remains healthy as the first half of the year progresses. Emerging markets volume appears strongest to APAC for air freight with more than half of respondents anticipating higher volumes on the lane three months from now. This is likely due to food imports from such locations as Africa, Chile, Argentina and elsewhere.”
Questions & Answers
Q.Which specific trade lanes are showing the most optimism for increased ocean freight volumes in the coming months?
Which specific trade lanes are showing the most optimism for increased ocean freight volumes in the coming months?
Seventy per cent of respondents expect APAC to Europe ocean freight volumes to increase, and 66.7 per cent forecast rising volumes from APAC to North America. The Europe to APAC lane also had the highest month-on-month volume gains.
Q.What factors are contributing to tight capacity in ocean freight markets, especially from Europe to Asia?
What factors are contributing to tight capacity in ocean freight markets, especially from Europe to Asia?
Demand from Europe to Asia has been higher than anticipated, coupled with disruption to liner services. This includes blank sailings around Chinese New Year and changes to alliances, leading to expected tightness well into Q2.
Q.What explains the lower optimism for higher volumes on the North America to APAC ocean trade lane?
What explains the lower optimism for higher volumes on the North America to APAC ocean trade lane?
Only 28.6% of respondents saw higher volumes in April compared to March, and 43% expect increases in three months. The strength of the Greenback catching up with exporters is suggested as a potential reason for this trend.
Q.Which air freight lanes showed the most dynamic growth in April compared to March?
Which air freight lanes showed the most dynamic growth in April compared to March?
The most dynamic air cargo lanes were APAC to Europe, with 73 per cent experiencing higher volumes. Europe to APAC saw 55 per cent higher volumes, and APAC to North America reported 63 per cent higher volumes month-on-month.
Reader pulse
Will this new Index truly benefit retailers?
22,430 votes so far