Malaysia’s September trade surplus climbs to 10-year high
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Malaysia’s exports rebounded by 6.7% year on year (yoy) in September 2018 to RM83 billion after a dip of 0.3% in the previous month, boosting the trade surplus to a 10-year high of RM15.3 billion, the Statistics Department said. The surplus represents an 85.9% jump compared with the same month last year.
Imports, however, registered a decrease of 2.7% yoy to RM67.8 billion. This was the second lowest import value in 2018.
Total trade, which was valued at RM150.8 billion, increased RM3.3 billion or 2.3% in September 2018.
The export growth was contributed by expansion in exports to Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia and South Korea. Lower imports were mainly from India, South Korea, Vietnam, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union.
The main products which contributed to the expansion in exports were electrical & electronic products (+6.5%); refined petroleum products (+20.5%); crude petroleum (+54.5%) and liquefied natural gas (+1.8%).
However, declines were recorded for palm oil and palm oil-based products (-11.5%); timber and timber-based products (-0.4%) and natural rubber (-1.9%).
The lower imports by “end-use” were mainly attributed to intermediate goods, capital goods, and consumption goods.
MIDF Research said export growth for Q3 averaged 5.3% yoy, moderated from 8.4%yoy in Q2. It was the lowest gain in seven quarters.
Looking at the final quarter of 2018, it expects exports to perform better than in the earlier three quarters.
“Amid higher base effects and signs of easing key global indicators, we foresee exports to expand by 7.3% this year (18.9% in 2017). This is supported by lower exports growth for the first nine months which registered at 6.5% compared to double-digit growth of 21.6% in the same period last year.
“The moderating pace is consistent with gradual rise in global commodity prices, expectation of slight slowdown in overall business performance on top of the heating Sino-US trade conflict.”
Questions & Answers
Q.Which specific product categories saw a decrease in exports during September?
Which specific product categories saw a decrease in exports during September?
Exports declined for palm oil and palm oil-based products by 11.5%, timber and timber-based products by 0.4%, and natural rubber by 1.9%. These products experienced a decrease in outbound shipments.
Q.Which countries were responsible for the increased export figures in September?
Which countries were responsible for the increased export figures in September?
Expansion in exports was contributed by increased trade with several countries. Key contributors included Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia, and South Korea, which all imported more goods from Malaysia.
Q.What is the forecast for export expansion by the end of 2018?
What is the forecast for export expansion by the end of 2018?
MIDF Research anticipates exports will expand by 7.3% for the entirety of 2018. This expectation is supported by the lower export growth observed in the first nine months of the year.
Q.What categories of goods primarily contributed to the lower import values?
What categories of goods primarily contributed to the lower import values?
The reduction in import values was mainly attributed to specific end-use categories of goods. Intermediate goods, capital goods, and consumption goods were the primary contributors to this decrease in inbound shipments.
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