Indonesian Telecom Boom: Mobile Data Revenue Fuels Market Surge Amid Decline in Voice Services
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The mobile services sector in Indonesia is anticipated to observe a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 3.4%, thus escalating from USD 10.2 billion in 2025 to USD 12.1 billion by 2030. This expansion is principally fueled by the escalating proceeds from mobile data services, offsetting the continuous decrease in mobile voice and messaging revenues.
Shift in Mobile Services Revenue
The forecast for mobile services in Indonesia suggests that the revenue from mobile voice services is slated to reduce during the predicted period. This reduction is ascribed to a gradual decrease in mobile voice ARPU as consumers increasingly opt for OTT communication platforms, whereas service providers are incorporating free voice minutes in their offerings. In contrast, mobile data service revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.8% from 2025 to 2030. This growth is stimulated by the increasing number of mobile internet subscriptions and the growing adoption of high-ARPU 5G services. The demand for data services is further boosted by cross-border travelers, business users, and high data consumption in urban areas, signifying a market shift towards data-centered monetization.
The average monthly data usage over mobile networks is anticipated to escalate from 20 GB in 2025 to 30.3 GB in 2030. This rise can be attributed to the surge in consumption of online video and social media content on mobile networks, spurred by the expansion of 5G networks and enticing data-focused plans provided by mobile network operators.
The Rise of 5G and Role of Telkomsel
Even though 4G is expected to maintain its stronghold in mobile technology subscriptions in 2025, its share of total subscriptions is forecasted to reduce as users transition to faster, more reliable 5G services. There will be a considerable increase in the number of 5G subscriptions in Indonesia, credited to the wider availability of reasonably priced 5G-enabled smartphones and an increasing variety of premium data plans for high-bandwidth applications. The Indonesian government has set an aim to expand 5G network coverage to over 30% by the end of 2030.
In 2025, Telkomsel is set to dominate the Indonesian mobile services market in terms of subscriptions and is predicted to uphold this supremacy throughout the forecast period. This is attributed to its comprehensive 4G coverage and aggressive expansion of its 5G infrastructure, with over 97% population coverage with 4G by March 2026 and more than 2,500 5G base stations across 56 cities by mid-2025.
The future of Indonesia’s consumer mobile market will revolve around increased mobile data consumption, accelerated 5G migration, and rising demand for high-speed digital experiences. As users gravitate towards video streaming, social media, and data-intensive applications, operators will concentrate on expanding 4G/5G coverage and introducing segmented data plans to drive adoption and monetization.
Questions & Answers
What is driving the growth of the mobile services market in Indonesia?
The growth is primarily being driven by escalating revenue from mobile data services, which offsets the ongoing decline in mobile voice and messaging revenues.
What is the projected average monthly data usage over mobile networks by 2030?
The average monthly data usage over mobile networks is anticipated to escalate from 20 GB in 2025 to 30.3 GB in 2030.
Who is expected to lead the Indonesian mobile services market in 2025?
Telkomsel is expected to dominate the Indonesian mobile services market in terms of subscriptions in 2025. It will likely maintain this position throughout the forecast period due to its comprehensive 4G coverage and aggressive expansion of 5G infrastructure.