Hong Kong retail sales plunge for 17th month in a row

The bad news continues for Hong Kong’s downtown duty free and travel retailers such as DFS as the latest retail sales statistics show another month-on-month decline.

July government data provisionally indicate that the value of total retail sales in July fell by -7.7% to $34.6bn/$4.46bn, compared with July 2015. This means that for the first seven months of 2016, the value of total retail sales decreased by -10.1% compared with the same period in 2015.

The trend in department stores was slightly better: in July they fell by -6.9% and by -8.7% in the first seven months of the year.

The graph above shows the rate of change on a monthly basis for all retail sales in Hong Kong and it suggests that since the second quarter of 2015 there has been continuous downward, negative pressure on sales [the spikes reflect the timings of Chinese New Year].

HIGH-VALUE ITEMS HAMMERED

By those product categories most relevant to duty free, the figures showed a very mixed performance in July. Value sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and ‘valuable gifts’ took a beating, decreasing by -26.2% as did electrical goods and photographic equipment (-21.8%), while footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories held their ground at (-1.1%).

The tourism trend this year looks worse than in 2015 which is a worry.

The overall negative trend has been attributed to the depressed tourist traffic coming to Hong Kong, particularly from China. While the July figures are not yet available, in the half-year to June visitor arrivals fell by -7.4% to 27.16m, with mainland Chinese traffic falling by over -10%.

This follows an inbound decline of -2.9% to 59.3m in 2015, but a spending decline of -7.5% to HK$332.3bn. Of the 59.3m, Mainland China continued to be the largest visitor source market accounting for 77% of total arrivals.