DHL forecasts solid growth

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer uses large amounts of logistics data to forecast demand for the next three months. In its second report, the barometer increased to 66 points, up from 64 points in January.

According to DHL, an index value above 50 signals solid positive growth for global trade, while the increase from the initial forecast in January indicates that growth is gaining momentum.

Compared to the findings in January, the improved global index is mainly driven by an increasingly positive outlook for South Korean and trade in the USA. In contrast, the prospects for German trade eased after the strong peak seen in 2017.

India continues to show the highest index value of all seven countries for the overall trade predictions, while the UK, after a modest decline since January, scores the same level as China at the lower end of the country ranking.

The outlook for global airfreight, according to DHL, remains positive despite dropping slightly by one point compared to January. With 70 points, airfreight remains robust as air trade growth in China and the USA is expected to accelerate.

Meanwhile, the outlook for global ocean trade improved to 63 points in March from 60 points in January. This growth is also driven by the USA and China, together with a strong increase in South Korea, offsetting a slightly reduced growth outlook for UK and German oceanfreight.

The DHL Global Barometer is published four times a year. The next release date is June 27, 2018.