Over 60 per Cent of Black Friday Shoppers Pre-Plan Holiday Purchases

2 min readSep 11, 20265:32 AM

In this article (8)

Australian retailers face a structural shift in holiday spending as 57 per cent of shoppers concentrate gift purchases in November after pre-selecting brands in October.

Data compiled by market research agency Retail Safari and consultancy PwC shows 64 per cent of holiday budgets remain unspent entering November, even as buyers finalise purchase shortlists weeks earlier. Black Friday alone now captures 55 per cent of holiday shoppers, turning the discount window into an execution phase rather than a discovery channel.

The Split Between Early Planning and Peak Spending

Consumer research from Mintel indicates more than six in ten Black Friday shoppers choose their target products before promotional events begin. Shoppers use September and October to compare specifications, check customer reviews and track merchant pricing before committing funds. In Australia, research from the Australian Retailers Association and Roy Morgan showed 29 per cent of consumers started browsing earlier in 2025 than the previous year, while only 8 per cent started later.

The US-based National Retail Federation recorded an identical baseline, with roughly 40 per cent of consumers starting holiday research before November. Shoppers cite three main drivers: managing household budgets over time, avoiding store congestion, and eliminating late delivery risks.

“The US-based National Retail Federation recorded an identical baseline, with roughly 40 per cent of consumers starting holiday research before November.”

Big-Ticket Sales Diverge From Headline Retail Growth

Official figures mask underlying pressure across discretionary categories. Australian Bureau of Statistics data analyzed by investment research firm MST Marquee placed July retail turnover growth at 6.6 per cent year on year, running above the 4.9 per cent historical average. Food services rose 9.3 per cent and clothing gained 7.1 per cent, but major durable goods operators failed to capture that momentum.

First-quarter trading updates reflect the divide. Online furniture seller Temple & Webster reported sales down 13 per cent across its first seven weeks, department store operator Myer posted a 4 per cent decline, and Accent Group recorded a 2 per cent like-for-like drop. Electronics chain JB Hi-Fi saw comparable sales slip 1.4 per cent, while its home appliance unit The Good Guys declined 1.7 per cent and furniture retailer Nick Scali tracked flat from July 1.

Household Wealth Pressures Shorten Brand Lists

For store operators and suppliers, the divergence means consumers are buying smaller items frequently while delaying expensive, considered purchases until deep discounting begins. Retailers that spend their marketing budgets solely on late November discounts risk losing shoppers who eliminated unfamiliar brands during the October evaluation window. Merchant margins face compounding pressure if price cuts merely settle competition among pre-selected names rather than bringing in new foot traffic.

The shift follows a broader contraction in gift-buying participation. ARA and Roy Morgan figures showed 68 per cent of Australian adults planned holiday gift purchases last year, down 9 per cent from 2024, while average spend per remaining buyer climbed 7.1 per cent to A$757.

MST Marquee projects household goods demand will soften further through the fourth quarter as property price weakness and potential interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia curb discretionary outlays.

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What this means

This pronounced shift towards early planning and concentrated November purchasing pressures traditional retail models reliant on late-stage promotions. Retailers risking marketing spend solely on Black Friday risk missing the critical October pre-selection window where shoppers narrow brand choices. Unlike the market entry of PharmaResearch in Sephora Singapore, which focused on new brand discovery, this Australian trend demands existing brands secure their place earlier. While the overall holiday spend per buyer increased to A$757 last year, the reduced participation and consumer focus on budget management indicate a more discerning shopper. Retailers must recalibrate marketing cycles to September and October to influence purchase shortlists, otherwise they risk becoming another Accent Group with declining like-for-like sales. Watch for September marketing spend adjustments.

Minjun Park · Retail News Asia newsroom

Questions & Answers

What percentage of Black Friday shoppers are deciding on their purchases before promotional events even begin?

More than six in ten Black Friday shoppers choose their target products before promotional events start. They use September and October to compare specifications, reviews, and pricing.

Why are shoppers increasingly starting their holiday research earlier in the year?

Shoppers cite three main reasons for early planning: managing household budgets over time, avoiding store congestion, and eliminating late delivery risks for their purchases.

Which retail categories are experiencing growth, and which are struggling despite overall retail turnover increasing?

Food services and clothing are growing, rising 9.3 per cent and 7.1 per cent respectively. However, major durable goods operators and big-ticket categories are failing to capture this momentum.

What is the expected trend for household goods demand towards the end of the year in Australia?

Household goods demand is projected to soften further through the fourth quarter. This is due to property price weakness and potential interest rate hikes curbing discretionary spending.

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