Gold rises as markets gird for US election outcome

Gold prices edged up on Tuesday as investors braced for political tensions after opinion polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in the U.S. presidential election.

Spot gold gained 0.2% to $2,740.96 an ounce by 01:54 p.m. U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% higher at $2,749.70.

Gold is supported by “the uncertainty of the elections. Part of it is what happens if things don’t go so smooth, part of it is the possibility of tariffs, some kind of economic changes,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

With a dead heat between Republican former President Trump and Democratic Vice President Harris and control of the U.S. Congress also at stake, investors are particularly nervy about an unclear or contested result, especially if it fuels unrest.

“Should the election result be uncertain for days or even weeks, gold would benefit from the resulting uncertainty,” Commerzbank said in a note.

Trump has repeatedly said any defeat could only stem from widespread fraud, echoing his false claims from 2020. The winner may not be known for days if the margins in key states are as slim as expected.

Gold should ultimately reach $2,800 “once the dust settles” after the election, Exinity Group Chief Market Analyst Han Tan said.

Elsewhere, markets widely anticipate a quarter-point cut from the Federal Reserve on Thursday, a further reduction to U.S. interest rates this year after a big cut in September.

Bullion is traditionally seen as a hedge against economic and political uncertainty, and tends to thrive when interest rates are low. This has helped the metal rise nearly 33% so far this year.

Spot silver rose 0.4% to $32.59 an ounce, platinum added 1.5% to $998.35 and palladium was down 0.2% at $1,072.50.

A private sector survey in top metals consumer China showed services activity expanded at its fastest pace in three months in October.