BNP Paribas Negative On India’s Consumption Recovery

The expectation for India’s consumption to recover in 2020 is getting pushed out further, according to forecasts by BNP Paribas.

Given that the nation’s slowest economic expansion in 10 years has led to a deceleration in local consumer staples sales for the sixth straight quarter, the brokerage expects India’s consumption recovery to be delayed.

There is a lack of meaningful catalysts for consumption to recover to its potential in the year to December, Kunal Vora, a Mumbai-based analyst at BNP Paribas Securities India wrote in a note to clients. A sustainable recovery in rural income growth and a sharp uptick in consumer sentiment index are necessary for recovery.

The brokerage last month turned negative on the consumer goods sector, pointing out that lower raw material prices and tax cuts were masking underlying weakness in sales. Consumer sentiment in the nation has worsened to an almost five-year low while manufacturing slack at companies widened to the most on record, data from the Reserve Bank of India showed this month.

The federal budget for the year starting April 1 didn’t offer much in terms of big-bang stimulus to boost rural incomes. Meanwhile, economic growth is still weighed down by bad debts in its banking sector. The three months to Dec. 31 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of moderation in aggregate revenue growth for consumer staples, and management commentaries indicate companies are uncertain about the timing of recovery.