Food
Headline inflation rate rose by 1.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April 2018, slightly higher than 1.3% year-on-year registered in the preceding month as transport inflation rebounded from a negative territory logged for two months to positive at 0.4% y-o-y, said MIDF Research.
Amid unfavourable base effects, MIDF Research foresees headline inflation rate to average at 2.6% this year, supported by inflation rate for 1Q18 which registered at 1.8% compared to 4.2% in the same period last year.
“We expect inflationary pressure mainly from fuel-related items to calm, consistent with gradual rise in global commodity prices on top of pass-through effect from a strengthening ringgit, re-subsidisation of domestic fuel price and withdrawal of GST.”
As inflationary pressure remains steady, it anticipates Bank Negara Malaysia to maintain its current monetary policy with no more hikes in overnight policy rate for the rest of 2018 barring any pleasant upward surprises in domestic economic growth.
It noted that food inflation continues to dip but moving forward, there is a potential for food inflation to rise in the upcoming months due to rising demand for Ramadan and Hari Raya celebrations.
It expects 2018’s fuel-related inflation to moderate amid of unfavourable base effects, re-subsidisation of domestic fuel price and high likelihood of a downward adjustment of global commodity prices in 2H18 from the current temporary factors which pushed the prices up.
MIDF also foresees inflation rate across all states will moderate below 3% in 2018 amid of unfavourable base effects and zero rated GST.
“Looking forward, we foresee inflation level will gradually increase buoyed by moderating global growth, steady rise in commodities prices and tight labour market conditions.”
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.4% in April 2018 as compared to the same month last year, after indices for food & non-alcoholic beverages (+2.6%), restaurants and hotels (+2.2%), health (+2.1%), housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels (+2.0%), furnishings, household equipment & routine household maintenance (+1.8%) and education (+1.1%), all recorded increases, according to the Department of Statistics.
Chief Statistician Malaysia Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin said the overall index was also affected by the increase in the transport group by 0.4% in April 2018 as compared to the 1.5% decrease recorded in March 2018. Meanwhile, the CPI for the period January-April 2018 increased 1.7% as compared to the same month last year.
The Statistics Department also reported that three states surpassed the national CPI rate of 1.4% recorded in April 2018 as compared to April 2017, which are Kuala Lumpur (+1.9%), Selangor & Putrajaya (+1.6%) and Penang (+1.5%).
FXTM global head of currency strategy & market research Jameel Ahmad said while the inflation reading continues to suggest that the economy is encountering a period of lower inflation, it sees risks that this outlook could change over the coming months.
“There has been a drastic change in investor appetite towards the US dollar, which has crumpled emerging market currencies across the globe. This has also impacted the ringgit, which currently appears to be at risk to falling back towards 4 against the dollar and is likely to do so, if traders continue to stock up on the US dollar.”
As a result of the ringgit weakening, he said import price pressures are likely to increase over the next two to three months and this will consequently result in higher inflation potential.
